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East Antarctic ice sheet may accelerate melting, sea level will rise 2 to 5 meters in 480 years

The Australian National University issued a communiqué on the 11th, saying that an international team of researchers from the school predicted that if the goals of the Paris Agreement are not met, the East Antarctic ice sheet will accelerate due to the impact of climate change, which may lead to sea levels by 2500. Ascend about 2 to 5 meters. A related paper has been published in the British journal Nature.

Ice shelves in East Antarctica in late March 2022, image from NASA Earth Observatory.

The communiqué said that the East Antarctic Ice Sheet is the largest ice sheet in the world and contains most of the glacial ice on the planet. Researchers from institutions including the Australian National University and King’s College London, UK, have conducted research into the risk of rising sea levels from the East Antarctic ice sheet under the influence of climate change.

In mid-October 2011, NASA scientists working in Antarctica discovered a huge crack in the Pine Island Glacier, a major ice stream draining the West Antarctic Ice Sheet.

New research predicts that the East Antarctic Ice Sheet will raise sea levels by less than half a metre by 2500 AD if global temperature rises are well below 2 degrees Celsius compared to pre-industrial levels. But if global temperature rises by more than 2 degrees Celsius this century due to high greenhouse gas emissions, the East Antarctic ice sheet will melt faster, potentially leading to a sea level rise of about 1 to 3 meters by 2300 AD and about 2 to 5 meters by 2500. Meter.

A fissure near the grounding line of the Pine Island Glacier, Antarctica, on June 14, 2018.

The goal of the Paris Agreement is to limit global temperature rise to less than 2 degrees Celsius compared to pre-industrial levels within this century, and to strive to limit warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius. If countries fail to meet the climate goals of the Paris Agreement, they risk awakening a “sleeping giant”, researchers have warned.
In March of this year, the 1,200-square-kilometer Conger Ice Shelf in eastern Antarctica disintegrated. Rob Larter, a marine geophysicist at the British Antarctic Survey, said a warmer climate had increased the likelihood of ice shelf disintegration. The reason for the collapse of the Conger Ice Shelf is the recent high temperatures, record sea ice loss and the ice shelf being washed by waves, said glaciologist Ted Scambos, chief scientist at the National Snow and Ice Data Center.

On January 9 (top) and March 23 (bottom), 2022, satellite images show the Conger Ice Shelf before and after its disintegration.

Meanwhile, a new study by the University of Maine and the British Antarctic Survey found that by measuring the rate of sea level change around particularly vulnerable glaciers in Antarctica, glaciers have begun to collapse at rates not seen in the past 5,500 years. Antarctica is covered by two huge “ice blocks”, the East Antarctic Ice Sheet and the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. The West Antarctic ice sheet has been thinning at an accelerated rate over the past few decades due to a warming climate. Of these, the Thwaites and Pine Island glaciers are particularly vulnerable to global warming, which is already causing sea level rise.

Undated photo provided by NASA shows Thwaites Glacie in West Antarcticar。

On October 26, 2011, local time, a crack spreads on the Pine Island Glacier ice shelf in Antarctica.

The East Antarctic ice sheet, which is 10 times larger than the West Antarctic ice sheet, is also “highly sensitive to relatively moderate warming,” said study co-author Nellie Abram of the Australian National University’s School of Earth Sciences. , is not as stable as one might think. Abrams said global commitment to the Paris Agreement, if achieved and strengthened, could not only protect the world’s largest ice sheet, but also slow major ice sheets such as Greenland and West Antarctica that are more vulnerable to global warming. Cover melts.

Image taken on July 22, 2022, shows sediment discharge from the melting of the Godthabsfjord ice in southwestern Greenland.

A severe heatwave has been affecting Greenland in recent weeks. Continued heat has caused the ice sheets to melt rapidly, releasing about 6 billion tons of water into the ocean every day between July 15 and 17, 2022. The Arctic plays an important modulating role in the global climate system. But past reports say the polar regions are warming at an average rate two to three times faster than the rest of the world, and are experiencing the most dramatic increases in surface temperatures across the globe, a phenomenon known as Arctic amplification. At present, all countries and meteorological organizations in the world are highly concerned about the changes in Arctic temperature.

Turquoise-colored waters appear in a large melting cave at the top of an iceberg in Disko Bay, Ilulissat, western Greenland, on June 29, 2022.

An iceberg floats in Disko Bay in Ilulissat, western Greenland, on June 30, 2022, in Greenland, Denmark.

On July 19, 2022, local time, in Greenland, Denmark, the pancake-shaped ice cubes and their melting conditions were photographed by scientific researchers.

In April, according to the Intergovernmental Panel of Experts on Climate Change (IPCC), the two largest ice sheets – Greenland and Antarctica – have been losing mass since at least 1990, with the highest rate of loss between 2010-2019 . Expect them to continue to lose quality. The rate of global sea-level rise has accelerated since satellite altimeters began measuring in 1993, reaching a record high in 2021, the World Meteorological Organization has warned.

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