Many people believe that due to the global epidemic that began in 2020, many factories have been shut down because of this, and greenhouse gas emissions should be reduced. However, the latest research by scientists shows that this expected trend has not happened, and it is even more pessimistic.
Scientists’ findings
Recently, according to a new report written by an international team of more than 100 scientists, global carbon dioxide has not been significantly reduced, and the results of control of emissions are not enough to limit global warming to more than industrialization. The first 1.5 degrees Celsius level. The report also pointed out that if warming continues at the current rate, the global average temperature is expected to cross the line of 1.5 degrees Celsius increase within a decade.
The main person in charge of the research said that despite the impact of the epidemic in the past few years, the carbon dioxide emissions that cause global warming have not shown signs of reducing, indicating that the greenhouse gas emission reduction actions in the past few years are far from sufficient. Much work remains to be done to reverse the trajectory of global emissions.
And if the goal of net-zero global CO2 emissions by 2050 is to be achieved, it will need to cut CO2 emissions as drastically as they did at the height of the pandemic. From a global perspective, at the peak of the epidemic, not only many factories stopped production, but also a large number of aircraft and flights were grounded, and the consumption of “big players” that produced greenhouse gas emissions such as fossil fuels decreased significantly, and the economic development of many countries and regions in the world. stagnant. Obviously, this model alone to limit carbon dioxide emissions is certainly not the result we want.
Prediction of carbon dioxide emissions this year
According to the global carbon budget report recently published in the journal “Earth System Science Data”, scientists have made a preliminary estimate of global carbon dioxide emissions this year. The core indicators are as follows: The concentration of carbon dioxide in the earth’s atmosphere is 1 million 417.2/417.2, this value is about 51% higher than that before industrialization.
At the same time, global carbon dioxide emissions are about 36.8 billion tons, which is also quite “significant”. If it is considered that most countries and regions in Europe are affected by the shortage of natural gas, it is very likely that coal consumption will increase significantly compared with previous years, and this annual emission value will increase significantly.
From the perspective of emission contribution rate, the first place is still fossil fuels. On a year-over-year basis, global oil use was up 2.2% from a year earlier, largely due to the now-restarting recovery of the aviation industry. Global coal use also rose by 1%, while natural gas use fell slightly.
The global distribution of this situation is very uneven. For example, the carbon dioxide emissions of China and the European Union have plummeted, but the United States, India and other major emitters have increased to a certain extent compared with last year.
Scientists’ analysis of the situation
The report also conducts an in-depth analysis of the reasons for the above situation, and believes that the reason for China’s plummeting emissions is due to my country’s in-depth implementation of the green development strategy, vigorously promoting the “dual carbon” strategy, and actively adjusting the industrial structure and energy structure. It is the vigorous promotion and use of solar energy and wind energy. The reduction in EU fossil fuel emissions could be attributed to an economic slowdown starting in 2021.
On the other hand, in the United States and India, the reason for the increase in emissions is that the report believes that the increase in the United States may be due to the rebound in the industry after the slowdown of the epidemic control policy, while India is affected by the country’s continuous development policy, mainly in infrastructure, construction. In terms of energy consumption and per capita energy consumption, the country has always wanted to catch up with the countries with the highest economic aggregates. The increase in resources and investment means an increase in energy consumption, and the country’s energy structure cannot be changed in a short period of time. Renewable energy and new clean energy.
In addition to fossil energy, which accounts for 90% of carbon dioxide emissions, the remaining 10% or so comes from the unreasonable use of land, such as deforestation and fire. Indonesia, Brazil and Congo will contribute 58% of global land use emissions in 2022. In these countries, many large-scale deforestation, forest fires, burning of agricultural waste, and livestock emissions have occurred. This is very worrying for scientists because these countries have high numbers of poor people and are increasingly converting carbon-intensive forests into rice fields and soybean farms.
Scientists worry about the future
The report pointed out that as long-term carbon sinks, oceans and forests play an important role in carbon sequestration. They can absorb about half of fossil fuel carbon emissions, but from the current point of view, such long-term carbon sinks are also strained to the limit. The rate of global warming and the advent of more extreme weather has greatly reduced the ability of oceans and forests to absorb carbon dioxide.
Scientists have calculated that global climate change over the past decade has reduced the ability of oceans and forests to absorb carbon dioxide by at least 10 percent. When this absorptive capacity drops to a certain level, this role and the last line of defense as a long-term carbon sink will also be broken. This problem will be another consequence and great risk that we humans face if we do not rapidly reduce carbon dioxide emissions.
In addition, the implementation of global climate policies will also be affected by the failure of some countries to abide by international rules and order, the consumption of more energy under the economic recovery, and the occurrence of local wars. This also means that even if a country like my country promotes greenhouse gas emission reduction and ecological protection with such a large investment and efforts, and has played a role in global warming to a certain extent, it will not be able to offset the above negative influence of factors.
As noted in the report, energy use and emissions are driven by a myriad of factors across different sectors, each of which plays a different role in the global economy and people’s lives, and all of which are affiliated with different interest groups .
Therefore, the author believes that a more powerful climate policy, that is, a policy of replacing fossil fuels with renewable energy without weakening the global economy, in order to achieve effective and sustainable emission reduction, from the current point of view, the difficulties and resistance are still considerable. It is necessary for every country and region, like our country, to treat it with a just, fair and just attitude and practice, instead of playing its own small calculus and satisfying its own interests, otherwise people on earth will continue to Threatened and endangered by continued warming, no one can escape.
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